Global debt has hit an all-time high, making its way into the headlines worldwide. Debt held by governments, corporations, and individuals has alarmed economists and finance experts alike. While some argue that this debt load is necessary for economic recovery and growth, others warn that this could have far-reaching consequences for the economy around the world. In this episode, Rusty talks with Phillip Toews, Founder and CEO of Toews Asset Management. Phillip has a passion for behavioral finance and its role in investment decision-making. He focuses on creating "investor-friendly" products and is an outspoken advocate of changing and improving investment vehicles to serve clients' needs. Phillip is also the Founder and CEO of the Behavioral Investing Institute, where he helps advisors cultivate their skills and, through education, seek to serve their clients better. Phillip and Rusty weigh some of the potential scenarios and risks from the hidden implications of record global debt and some of the possible future scenarios for the stock market, interest rates, and real assets. Key Takeaways [02:50] - The origins of Toews Asset Management. [04:12] - Phillip's definition of risk. [06:18] - How bad the debt situation is right now. [08:40] - What financial repression means for the economy and investors. [11:27] - What financial crisis means for the economy and the markets. [13:37] - What the extended economic malaise looks like for investors. [16:18] - How investors can build resilient portfolios in today's environment. [20:37] - How the dollar plays out in the current economic climate. [25:22] - What history says happened during a time of financial repression. [29:56] - Phillip's view of the extended economic malaise. Quotes [04:36] - "I define risks as the probability that I will have a lower standard of living than I expect I want. At the extreme end, it means I run completely of money or am destitute. At a less extreme, it means that I will be living a certain standard of living during retirement. But something happens in the markets, and suddenly, I can't do that." ~ Phillip Toews [07:14] - "We have record levels of debt. We've got sovereign debt, where in the U.S. and some other advanced economies were up to 100% of GDP, which is as high as ever. Simultaneously we have high levels of non-financial, corporate, and personal debt. To sum it up, it's 350% of GDP. That's a new record." ~ Phillip Toews [17:53] - "Building a behavioral portfolio means creating an all-weather type of portfolio that looks outside of the sphere of what's happened in the last 50 years. That includes things like the Great Depression or things like what happened in Japan, where you need to build something that addresses contingencies." ~ Phillip Toews Links Phillip Toews on LinkedIn Toews Asset Management Don't Give Up by Groove Armada Michael Pettis Peter G. Peterson Foundation Behavioral Investing Institute Toews Asset Management on LinkedIn Connect with our hosts Rusty Vanneman Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts Disclosure Access to the services presented is provided solely as a service to financial advisors. Orion Risk Intelligence does not make recommendations or determine the suitability of any security or strategy. Past performance of a security or strategy does not guarantee future results. Orion Risk Intelligence research and tools are provided for informational purposes only. While the information is deemed reliable, Orion Risk Intelligence does not guarantee its accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any purpose, and makes no warranties with respect to the results to be obtained from its use. 1020-OAT-4/11/2023
Global debt has hit an all-time high, making its way into the headlines worldwide. Debt held by governments, corporations, and individuals has alarmed economists and finance experts alike. While some argue that this debt load is necessary for economic recovery and growth, others warn that this could have far-reaching consequences for the economy around the world.
In this episode, Rusty talks with Phillip Toews, Founder and CEO of Toews Asset Management. Phillip has a passion for behavioral finance and its role in investment decision-making. He focuses on creating "investor-friendly" products and is an outspoken advocate of changing and improving investment vehicles to serve clients' needs. Phillip is also the Founder and CEO of the Behavioral Investing Institute, where he helps advisors cultivate their skills and, through education, seek to serve their clients better.
Phillip and Rusty weigh some of the potential scenarios and risks from the hidden implications of record global debt and some of the possible future scenarios for the stock market, interest rates, and real assets.
Key Takeaways
Quotes
[04:36] - "I define risks as the probability that I will have a lower standard of living than I expect I want. At the extreme end, it means I run completely of money or am destitute. At a less extreme, it means that I will be living a certain standard of living during retirement. But something happens in the markets, and suddenly, I can't do that." ~ Phillip Toews
[07:14] - "We have record levels of debt. We've got sovereign debt, where in the U.S. and some other advanced economies were up to 100% of GDP, which is as high as ever. Simultaneously we have high levels of non-financial, corporate, and personal debt. To sum it up, it's 350% of GDP. That's a new record." ~ Phillip Toews
[17:53] - "Building a behavioral portfolio means creating an all-weather type of portfolio that looks outside of the sphere of what's happened in the last 50 years. That includes things like the Great Depression or things like what happened in Japan, where you need to build something that addresses contingencies." ~ Phillip Toews
Links
Connect with our hosts
Subscribe and stay in touch
Disclosure
Access to the services presented is provided solely as a service to financial advisors. Orion Risk Intelligence does not make recommendations or determine the suitability of any security or strategy. Past performance of a security or strategy does not guarantee future results. Orion Risk Intelligence research and tools are provided for informational purposes only. While the information is deemed reliable, Orion Risk Intelligence does not guarantee its accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any purpose, and makes no warranties with respect to the results to be obtained from its use.
1020-OAT-4/11/2023